Often we get a glimpse of the future by carefully watching what’s happening here and now. Trending in the digital comm world is revealing and can often lead to the right path.

So it’s significant when 29% of US teens decrease Facebook use or lapse entirely. Wow! Why? And what does this mean for Facebook’s future?

“They just lost interest” is how an eMarketer story (http://l.qsig.com/cjp8) framed the results of a study showing a steady increase in the number of US teens decreasing their use of Facebook or abandoning it entirely. Diving into the numbers and asking more whys, we learn that the teens are tired of the confusion on Facebook, don’t like the changes that have been made and that their friends are using other social networks. In short, Facebook is “boring” to them (their word, not mine).

Pulling out my crystal ball and guess the future, I see a major wreck for Facebook. Here’s why.

#1 Needless Complication

Facebook has a very bad habit — every year or so they stumble and bumble through an unwanted update or a privacy snafu or some other series of changes that they seem to feel are necessary. Clearly they do not subscribe to the “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” philosophy. It doesn’t appear that they actually poll the users on what we want.

The teens in the study, and other in research and comments I’ve seen were clearly disappointed with the changes Facebook endured earlier this year. Confusion still lingers about news and updates and what is exactly what and how I can get back to the way it was last year. Throw the privacy disaster on top of unpopular changes and you have the ingredients for exodus.

If it were mine to run, I would be extremely careful before making the recent sweeping changes to what has exploded into the largest and most vibrant social network the world has ever seen.

#2 Growing Competition

Facebook’s changes cause most of us to sit back and scratch our heads. While the world is heading to mobile and proximity based systems, Facebook changes “Fans” to “Likes.” While the world is blossoming with photo and video sharing, Facebook tinkers with Apps and creates a new Most Recent selection. Most recent what?

No easy photo gallery tool. No stable video posting system. Nothing to let us see if any of our Facebook friends are nearby. But now I can “like” Jack-in-the-Box instead of being a “fan” of Jack Box.

Watch out, Twitter is becoming more and more Facebook-like, and Linkedin has incorporated updating and other more social features. The gaggle of new social net wannabes have some interesting features and functions.

#3 Off Track

What is the magic of Facebook? What is it that caused millions of us to join and use the network every day?

I have my thoughts and so do you, but does Facebook? From the direction they have taken, do you think Facebook know what’s magic and what’s not. I honestly don’t think they have a clue.

Now Facebook isn’t in jeopardy of going away anytime soon. It’s strength may wane and competition will fragment their existing base, but it will be impossible for them to continue to generate growth. And, more importantly, if a good competitive network shows up that is easy to understand and use and cares about privacy, then Facebook has a lot to fear.

For marketers and digital communicators it means we have to carefully watch the balance between Facebook’s day-to-day usage numbers and the growth of emerging social networking sites. The natural erosion of members and daily usage will make time and dollar expenditures at Facebook harder, and harder to justify to clients and management. It complicates our lives, but it’s exciting at the same time to know that new social networks will spring up this year and grow rapidly in the wake of Facebook’s stumbles.

With the tribalization of the Internet gaining tremendous steam, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a major brand or one of the big Internet players (can you spell Google?) come out with a “back to the basics” social networking system that takes root and blossoms.

Change! That why this is such a fun world to live in. Right?

Until next time, may all the good news you hear be true.

Cheers,
steve